Saturday, December 15, 2012

Keeping it simple on the 15 min.

Any trader can throw a bunch of lines on a chart or draw projected patterns and try to call the next move.  Every trader has an opinion.  That is what makes a market.  Instead of putting tons of support / resistance levels on this short term chart i thought it to be more simple to outline some areas i believe to be in play at the moment.  The first level is the one i was expecting to hold for the market to remain in a strong immediate uptrend.  Underneath the 142 area i will be looking for a short term downtrend; possibly getting support at the 141 area as a best scenario.
Like to see a pull back up above 142 range in short order.  If not then the price action to the downside will give clues as we go forward.  We could spend the week forming a falling wedge on the way down, or simply blow right through the levels shown down to a more solid level of buyers.
Look forward to seeing how things go this week.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Washington in control of the charts

No matter how good the technicals can be, they have nothing on the power of Washington right now.  Yes we did travel to a logical area of support in the market today, but that can all be thrown out the window with the fiscal cliff.  Without some positive news coming out of the meeting with Boehner and Obama this evening we more than likely will head south in the market tomorrow.  It's amazing the market has moved higher thus far, but the market is showing signs of weakness now.  Partly one could say as a result of overhead resistance in stocks at these levels but also from the fear of not reaching a deal on the fiscal cliff.
What matters to a trader is the preservation of capital.  If you are long only for the most part in stocks, it's time to evaluate positions and make sure your trading plan is in good shape.  New positions are most at risk right now.  Lots of stocks have logical support levels all the way down to unacceptable loss levels.
If we lose ground in the morning and head to the underside of the 1416 -1420 level tomorrow in the S&P, i personally will look to get out of any stock that loses the support level i have identified as max pain / technically failed on price.
The other scenario is if we hold that level in the market - which still would not have me going long on anything else.  The only possible exception may be CF.  The chart is posted under the stocks tab.
It's clear that if there is a fiscal resolution the market will take off to the upside.  I hope there is a resolution, but at the same time i would love to get a good sale on some stocks.  Either way it will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

NOV coming into play

Looking for NOV to rebound.  However there was heavy sell volume on the recent down leg.  Being a leader in its industry, i believe the downtrend from earnings and fear of lower natural gas prices - along with the CEO change is about to be oversold.
A two day candle chart allowed me to see the overall chart pattern and likely support levels.  60.00 to the current price are likely support areas, but with the heavy sell volume at the current price i suspect the stock to go lower.  I would like to see some buy interest at the 63.00 level.  This is where my first and most favored scenario is projected to play out.  If it bounces where its at, i'll wait and see how it pulls off recent support lost now resistance and see how it acts.  If it goes beyond 60.00, i will probably be stopped out and wait a bit,

CF is a strong stock i like to trade when the right set up occurs.  The stock fell on a downgrade today and i believe it will rebound quickly.  The first chart show a longer time frame and where i believe the support levels are for the stock.  There are several logical levels between 193 and 203.  The flush in the market today gave a good read on the levels that found action today.  201.20 was where it landed at the low and that is worth noting.  From there i will watch to see if that holds.  If not, just under 198 would still keep a healthy higher low from the november swing low around 192.  I believe we would have to have some serious down pressure in the market to get below 198.

The intraday chart of CF shows the bounce action the stock had towards the close.  If we can hold the 201.20 low that would be good.  However, i would like to see the action prove its move by working through the upside resistance in a logical manner.   For me that means that i want to see it react to the relevant resistance levels so i know what i'm trading off.  I already know the first level was made before close just above 203.  How the price action behaves between the low and the first few resistance levels will give me a clue if it's going to hold.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

I'm back.  Past the six charts posted and you will see that i haven't posted since spring time.  Spending time at the farm since spring and taking care of other matters has kept me from updating a blog.  Now that the weather has turned, the corn and other fields have been taken care of and hunting season is nearing end it's time to get back to spending more time on the winter time activities.
The market has been unbelievably strong this fall.  I was more bearish and got rid of a lot of stocks too early.  
Made some money, but could have been up much more if i would have managed them better.  Now that i will be spending more time engaged in the market, i have taken a few more positions.  A nervous time to be going long on stocks right now i believe.  The fiscal cliff is looming on the market in a serious way.  Between now and the end of the year volitility is expected on my part.  The six new positions i took are based on their technicals - which are venerable to the extended market at this time and pending news on the fiscal cliff issues.
Well for now i'll post the short term chart of the S&P showing the recent run up.  The 1420 level is important to me - as i believe if we don't hold it we will step down enough to flush me out of the current stocks i hold.
Glad to be back at it!  Hope to get some good stuff going here.

New trades for the week of 12-9 showing entry points.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

My worst enemy in this market

My worst enemy in this market has been myself!  My doubts about this rally.  The fear of the rally ending.  Waiting for good stocks to provide an entry.  All of which is my problem; not the market.  The market could care less as it climbs higher.  I'm one to fear the trend when it is this extended.  That too is my problem.  So what do you do - just buy the darn stock and quit waiting for the ideal entry?  Yes.  At least it would have worked so far all this year.  I'm sure that i am not alone on this, but watching stocks fly and thinking it is too late at this point to enter them has not been the answer thus far.
Of course when i say "just buy the darn stock" i don't mean to buy it at a two or three day high, but a two or three day consolidation may be about as much as you get before the stock goes higher.
With that said, i'm still fearful of this market and will only "nibble" on a stock or two until better opportunities come.  But when a better opportunity comes along, will i be more fearful than i am now because of the run we have had - thinking we will have a sharper sell off?  Probably.  Like i said, I am my worst enemy.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Holy cow!

What a market!  Economic indicators continue to show the economy is improving.  The overall market sentiment shows no signs of weakness.  The S&P ran up to the 1400 level today and pulled off that level; and it will be interesting to see if we can plow through this level as well.  Looking at long term charts, it looks more like the 1405 level as being actual resistance area, but with the way the market has plowed through recent levels, we may run right on up to the 1425 area with ease.  Watch now that i say that the market make a liar out of me and pull back.  It wouldn't surprise me.
Took another hedge with the VIX tuesday at lows of the day.  Glad i did and will hold this one for a while.  Looking at JOY, but concerned with how hard it has fallen to its recent support.  I will hold off on this one for now.  Also been waiting for the transports to show any sort of sign that resembles bull; so far none.  NSC is interesting, but a tight stop took me out a week ago; and will have to show me better signals this time.  CF industries is a monster bull of a stock.  Its time to take this one for a ride.  I'll look for a good entry between now and the first of next week if the market permits.  Other than those, CVX is interesting, but it needs to show me a good move above 112 so that i don't get stuck in the old range.  Might add to CAT if it pulls back a little. Thats about it for now.  Not going to throw up an S&P chart tonight; it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what's going on there.  The 1405 level will have my eye though; and 1425.  If we pull off the 1400 level again i'll call that our next high water mark to clear and measure my risk reward as it relates to corresponding levels in different stocks from there (1400) to a downside support area of 1375ish.  Happy trading everyone and take care.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Couple interesting laggards

Thought I would throw up a chart of JOY and AFL.  They look decent here.
I left them small so you have to click to view.
                                                                                           click chart to view

Monday, March 12, 2012

No chasing here

It is so hard to watch good stocks continue to go higher and not be in them.  But it's better to let existing positions run and refrain from entering new trades at this level in the market.  Yes its very possible i may look back and realize how much farther stocks have run, but i have already been doing that!  Thats part of trading.  You can't predict the future; and one has to realize that eventually stocks will come down to levels where you do want to own them.
Some consolidation in the market could be just what the doctor ordered for some buy points.  But for now its time to be a patient observer and manage existing trades.
No S&P chart tonight, but will be paying attention to the range between 1370 - 1374.  We very well may clear out of this range to the upside, but this range could also see some more consolidation.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

52 week high territory - but strong

The market continues to show amazing strength this year.  It's kind of a delimma when we reach levels in the market that seem extended from a historical perspective.  One tries to protect gains and tighten up stops - only to get shook out on what ends up being a buying opportunity dip.  On the other hand you run the risk of losing more gains when the market does decide to take a dive; even if it is only a few percentage points in the market - where you would re-enter stocks which remain in a bull market.
  Lots of traders are starting to take profits on shorter time frames and capitalize on the small gains as they present themselves.  In hindsight, i have found that if i would have just hung in there a little longer on most of my positions i would be much better off right now.  I can look back at some of the stocks i got stopped out of or took early profits on and it makes me sick to my stomach to see how the performance would still be paying off if i would just continue to hold them.  Not every stock falls into this type scenario, but knowing where to draw the line on risk management is the key to letting the winners run and cutting the losers.  Easier said than done.  I continue to tighten up my stops as they move higher, but am learning to give them a little bit of wiggle room.
Many good stocks are currently up against resistance on the underside of recent highs and demonstrate how quickly they want to regain their recent highs.  Other stocks are oversold at short term support and may appear to be "buys" at this point.  Maybe they are, or maybe they will be in the dead cat bounce catergory - depending on how the market behaves.
As for the broad market, its anyone's guess what will happen.  If you go with the trend and consider the market sentiment, you get long and stay long.  Even Jim Cramer went from bull to bear to back to bull in the course of a week and a half as of late.
 I'll throw a chart of the S&P daily up, but not that the support lines i have on there mean anything in this market.    Best advice i could give anyone out there in traderland right now is to stick to your trading plan, remain disciplined and have a great day!

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Looking for a higher low

Not sure what to think of the price action today; other than it just didn't have the "flow" that makes me think we are out of the woods yet.  If we can put a higher swing low in from the low of the sell off (1340) in the range of 1343 -1347 area and digest the price action in an orderly fashion i will gain more confidence in resolving to the upside.  Sure the market can just climb right up without backfilling, and that is a scenario, but it just appears after reviewing many charts that there is some better support areas on stocks that need to be tested.  It could also be that there is just too strong of a bid in the market to let let some of the stocks to reach decent levels of support.  This makes me wonder if there will be some divergence between the performing stocks and laggards - as some stocks will start drifting lower until they eventually end up testing good support levels.
 At least the price action resolved to the upside today; and more than likely kept me from getting stopped out of a couple of stocks i shouldn't be in anyway.  Which brings me to the topic of sector performance.  Without it, one is fighting a losing situation.  Regardless of how well the technicals are set up on a specific stock, if the sector is under pressure as a whole - for fundamental reasons or otherwise - you are at risk to losing money.  Such is the case for the metals group at this time.  FCX and CLF are due for a rebound, but the sector has not turned.  With that said, i am still long both of these stocks at current levels, but am not willing to ride them down either (done that before).  CAT performed well today as well as the auto parts ORLY; which i am long both of these.  If all of my picks performed like these have life would be much less stressful.  That makes me think of what my ultimate stock portfolio would be if i could buy the stocks at the right price.  Thinking about this i found it wasn't hard to imagine the list;  CAT, ORLY, PII, CF, NKE, EBAY, ITW, CMI, JPM, V, ISRG, FFIV, AAPL, and an oil or two, possibly CVX or XOM, and maybe an oil service like SLB.  I could expand the list, but that would be diversified enough for me.  If it wasn't for the diversification, i would add an AZO, LKQX, WBC.  Thinking about this, it made me think; why haven't i taken advantage of selloffs and got my butt into these stocks more?  Somehow or another as things unfold i end up taking marginal positions in companies that are sub par to the above listed ones; usually because they are easier to catch on sale (and is why they don't perform as well).  As i become more experienced in understanding myself and how that relates to my trading i become more capable of making decisions that will give me the results i truly seek.  Sounds elementary in theory, but in reality it takes much more to turn the lessons learned through failures into a success.
Well, enough for the personal rant for the day, i'll leave this evening with a simple chart showing the selloff and a scenario which i will  be looking for.  Remember to always make the observations of the price action first, then to lay out the possible scenarios going forward based on historical evidence.  Even though i am only showing one scenario this evening, there are many that i try to anticipate, and serves a person well to know what they would do in each of them.  Have a great evening!

                                                                                                 click chart to view

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Finally getting some movement

Well, i haven't posted for a while - as i was getting rather complacent with the market action.  Now that we have some selling, its time to start observing some action in stocks followed.  FCX is looking really good as of today.  Stopped out about a week ago, and decided to wait for a better setup.  Today provided such a setup.  Also took a nibble on CAT; even though i'm not totally sure its done selling, i'll manage the trade accordingly.  As for the broad market, it looks like we will have another day maybe two of selling before the buyers start piling in to stocks.  Many stocks are close to some pretty good support now, but another day will do wonders. Its hard to refrain from buying on the way down; especially when you are glued to the monitors throughout the day.  Usually when i think the market has sold enough, it needs another day.  On my radar this week are: NSC, PII, RGR, CAT, FCX, CLF, DE, EBAY, SLB, and CF.   I did manage to take a couple of VIX trades with profit to help out the downside the last couple days; however, i found the VIXX did not move like the VIX index, which was discouraging.  I'm not much on shorting stocks, but if they get over extended again (in certain ones) i will look at this option more closely.
I'll end this post with a snapshot at some rough levels in the S&P to watch for support/resistance.

                                                                                             click chart to view