Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Are we losing some steam?

I have over 260 stocks on my main watch list and check most of them every week or two.  When browsing through them tonight i noticed an awful lot of dojis at 52 week high resistance levels.  That kind of bothers me for the near term market action; at least for the uptrend momentum that's been going on.  I'm not much of a bear.  Don't hardly ever short stocks; i'm afraid to do that with the companies i trade a lot.  They have great fundamentals.  But i do follow or at least check up on my main watch list to get an idea what the market looks like from a broader perspective.  Well, this evening it looks like we could use a pullback.  To what level?  That is anyone's guess there, but in my opinion a couple few percentage points in the market would probably get things tasty again.  The market is going to do what it does; regardless of what my projections are; but one would be reckless to not at least look at possible scenarios for the sake of risk management.  I've already unloaded most of my positions over the last two weeks; leaving me with ORLY, F, and FCFS as my only positions.  There are a few decent looking setups out there, but with the market looking like it could lose its steam, i'm going to stay nimble and wait for the best risk/reward scenarios.  I do like NSC; but believe it could go a little lower first - or at least consolidate some more.  CASY could be getting close to a trade, but am a little more skeptic of a clean breakout with this one - especially if the market is fussy.  Wouldn't mind getting back into DPZ again, but this is another stock that makes me wish the market was looking a little more healthy to trade; otherwise i would jump in right where its at.  Other than those, i do like FCX and will probably trade around some levels in it more as charting permits.
As far as the S&P 500 technicals today, i'll throw up the chart without any commentary except to say that we could stand to make at least a healthy - albeit successful test of the recent base we just broke out of.  The 1353 -1355 levels would get the job done.  Remember we chartists use the term "test" frequently when referring to reacting to a support or resistance level for a reason.  It may pass or it may fail.  I had to throw that out there.  With all that said, i'll be X% less bullish as we drop down in levels under the 1353 range.  
                                                                                                 click chart to view

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