Thursday, December 13, 2012

Washington in control of the charts

No matter how good the technicals can be, they have nothing on the power of Washington right now.  Yes we did travel to a logical area of support in the market today, but that can all be thrown out the window with the fiscal cliff.  Without some positive news coming out of the meeting with Boehner and Obama this evening we more than likely will head south in the market tomorrow.  It's amazing the market has moved higher thus far, but the market is showing signs of weakness now.  Partly one could say as a result of overhead resistance in stocks at these levels but also from the fear of not reaching a deal on the fiscal cliff.
What matters to a trader is the preservation of capital.  If you are long only for the most part in stocks, it's time to evaluate positions and make sure your trading plan is in good shape.  New positions are most at risk right now.  Lots of stocks have logical support levels all the way down to unacceptable loss levels.
If we lose ground in the morning and head to the underside of the 1416 -1420 level tomorrow in the S&P, i personally will look to get out of any stock that loses the support level i have identified as max pain / technically failed on price.
The other scenario is if we hold that level in the market - which still would not have me going long on anything else.  The only possible exception may be CF.  The chart is posted under the stocks tab.
It's clear that if there is a fiscal resolution the market will take off to the upside.  I hope there is a resolution, but at the same time i would love to get a good sale on some stocks.  Either way it will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

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