Thursday, December 13, 2012

NOV coming into play

Looking for NOV to rebound.  However there was heavy sell volume on the recent down leg.  Being a leader in its industry, i believe the downtrend from earnings and fear of lower natural gas prices - along with the CEO change is about to be oversold.
A two day candle chart allowed me to see the overall chart pattern and likely support levels.  60.00 to the current price are likely support areas, but with the heavy sell volume at the current price i suspect the stock to go lower.  I would like to see some buy interest at the 63.00 level.  This is where my first and most favored scenario is projected to play out.  If it bounces where its at, i'll wait and see how it pulls off recent support lost now resistance and see how it acts.  If it goes beyond 60.00, i will probably be stopped out and wait a bit,

CF is a strong stock i like to trade when the right set up occurs.  The stock fell on a downgrade today and i believe it will rebound quickly.  The first chart show a longer time frame and where i believe the support levels are for the stock.  There are several logical levels between 193 and 203.  The flush in the market today gave a good read on the levels that found action today.  201.20 was where it landed at the low and that is worth noting.  From there i will watch to see if that holds.  If not, just under 198 would still keep a healthy higher low from the november swing low around 192.  I believe we would have to have some serious down pressure in the market to get below 198.

The intraday chart of CF shows the bounce action the stock had towards the close.  If we can hold the 201.20 low that would be good.  However, i would like to see the action prove its move by working through the upside resistance in a logical manner.   For me that means that i want to see it react to the relevant resistance levels so i know what i'm trading off.  I already know the first level was made before close just above 203.  How the price action behaves between the low and the first few resistance levels will give me a clue if it's going to hold.

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